Recently, estimates of American stock market valuations reached their most extreme in US financial history.
The Wilshire 5000-to-GDP ratio sits at around 200% — higher than the ratio preceding the 1929 stock market mania, the 2000 dot-com bubble as well as the 2007-2009 Global Financial Crisis. At the same time, American households are loaded up on stocks. In fact, equities account for 40% of US households’ total allocation of financial assets, which is more than at previous market peaks. This does not mean stocks are going to fall next week or next month. The path of least resistance is still higher. What it does mean is that it will be challenging to earn above average returns from stocks over the medium term. And if there were a market ‘event’, historically normal valuations are a long way down from these levels.