Quarterly Newsletter – The Advisor

For much of the past forty years, investors enjoyed a remarkably favourable environment. Interest rates generally moved lower, global trade expanded, inflation remained subdued, technology improved productivity, and major geopolitical conflicts were relatively contained.

Those conditions shaped more than markets — they shaped investor expectations. Many came to believe that globalisation would continue indefinitely, that central banks could smooth out almost any economic setback, and that technological progress would keep inflation low while lifting corporate profits. That world produced exceptional investment returns.

Read the Summer 2026 Advisor

For many years, Latin America has remained largely off the radar of discerning investors – a region often viewed either as something to avoid or to sell short. Yet the continent may now be approaching a rare “spring” moment, in which geopolitics, easing monetary conditions and more pragmatic economic policies combine to create the potential for meaningful upside.

Latin America offers a blend of cyclical resilience, structural growth and diversification benefits that few other regions can match. For investors accustomed to the efficiency and predictability of mature markets, the continent’s volatility often obscures its deeper virtues: economic cycles that are not perfectly synchronised with those of the developed world, favourable demographics in several countries, and rising participation in the global shift toward digital commerce and financial inclusion. 

Read the Spring 2026 Advisor

Financial markets are being reshaped by two powerful narratives that can be seen either as fascinating structural shifts or as an elaborate attempt to keep investors on their toes.

First, there is the long-running “debasement trade”, which has finally made its way from niche commentary into the financial mainstream. Second, there is the AI investment boom, whose scale, ambition and costs would make even a Victorian railway magnate raise an eyebrow.

Read the Winter 2025 Advisor

Every bull market has its cheerleaders and its doomsayers. In September 2025 the chorus is split once again: some insist valuations are so extreme that caution demands selling everything; others argue that momentum and profits – especially from the Mega caps that dominate the indices – justify still higher prices. The paradox is not new. It haunted 1929 and 1999, resurfaced before the 2007-09 financial crisis, and reappeared in 2022. Investors, suspended between fear and greed, are left to choose between the risk of devastating loss and the risk of missing out.

The data are uncomfortable. The cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio sits at a historical peak. Dozens of the largest companies trade at multiples that imply perfection. Market capitalisation towers over GDP. The equity risk premium has been squeezed to a sliver, indicating extreme valuations.

Read the Autumn 2025 Advisor