Author name: adminalison

Every bull market has its cheerleaders and its doomsayers. In September 2025 the chorus is split once again: some insist valuations are so extreme that caution demands selling everything; others argue that momentum and profits – especially from the Mega caps that dominate the indices – justify still higher prices. The paradox is not new. It haunted 1929 and 1999, resurfaced before the 2007-09 financial crisis, and reappeared in 2022. Investors, suspended between fear and greed, are left to choose between the risk of devastating loss and the risk of missing out.

The data are uncomfortable. The cyclically adjusted price-earnings (CAPE) ratio sits at a historical peak. Dozens of the largest companies trade at multiples that imply perfection. Market capitalisation towers over GDP. The equity risk premium has been squeezed to a sliver, indicating extreme valuations.

Read the Autumn 2025 Advisor

Estimating America’s economic trajectory is becoming ever more challenging with the constant trade reversals, delays, extensions, and exemptions by the Trump administration. Their communication has been disorienting to say the least. It is disruptive to global trade and unsettling to consumer and business confidence – but, paradoxically, it may serve the prudent investor.

This administration has injected a heightened level of volatility into financial markets. Nevertheless, history shows global trade is resilient to both hot and cold conflict, and quickly adapts. Thus the stock market has been taking things in its stride. Not even a regional war between Israel and Iran, and joined by America, can derail this market. Astounding!

Read the Summer 2025 Advisor

For as long as modern trade has existed, there have been tariffs – duties, levies or taxes – that have been applied to goods entering a country.

Early in the 19th century, the English economist David Ricardo introduced his Theory of Comparative Advantage. The theory posits that countries benefit from foreign trade by specializing in and exporting goods where they have a relative advantage, even if they are not the most efficient producers of those goods. In other words, trading freely would help countries and their peoples prosper. The argument was a strong counter to the mercantilist dogma of the day. Mostly free trade brought unprecedented prosperity to Great Britain, propelling it into the rank of first amongst nations.

Read the Spring 2025 Advisor

“In the beginning was the loan, and the loan carried interest.”

So opens Edward Chancellor’s fascinating book, The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest, a historical analysis of the most important number in finance and economics. “All economic and financial activities take place across time. Interest is often described as the ‘price of money’ but it is better called the ‘price of time’: time is scarce, time has value, interest is the time value of money.”

Read the Winter 2024 Advisor